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Discussion Starter #141
I apologize, my friend, I really have no idea what you just said. Or, of the point that you're trying to make.
I’ll take one more crack at it. Assume, for the sake of making my point that 20% of boaters have training and 80% of boaters do not. If only 20% of fatalities are caused by those with training, it’s doesn’t prove the training had any impact on the fatality rate. You’d have to show that significantly fewer than 20% of fatalities involved boaters with training to be able to say it had a statistical impact.

One more way to say it. 83% of the population has brown eyes. If 83% of the accidents involve people with brown eyes, it does not mean that people with blue and green eyes are safer.

What I do know, is that the States with the highest numbers of registered boaters and the highest number of Fatalities, have had, for a long time, the least restrictive rules regarding training. ( in some cases no rules) That is changing.
New York, California, Texas, Florida have all recently passed boating safety laws. These are being phased in, so it will take years to see if there is any impact. Those 4 states account for over 30% of the fatalities.
Let’s put this to use now. Those four states, according to the link below have 32.2% of all the registered boats in the country. There is no correlation to their reported lax training rules. It’s only cause that’s where the 30% of boats are.

In fact, if you were correct, you’d want to see that only 10% of the registered boats were in these states, when they disproportionately had 30% of fatalities. But they don’t.

Make sense?

https://www.discoverboating.com/resources/california-grabs-top-spot-from-michigan-with-most-boat-registrations
 

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Yes, I see what you're saying. I don't think we can know, just by the laws or lack of them alone how many boaters have had training. I could live in NY where there was scant training requirements yet still have held a license or volunteered to received training elsewhere: Power Squadron, USCG, Navy, CG Auxiliary etc. Also, a registered boat doesn't necessarily equate to a boat that gets used.

What we do know is that 80 % of the people who die in a boating accident have received no training at all. That said, most of the deaths are on small open boats and Jet skis etc. on inland waters. Sailboats are not a not a big contributor.

Interestingly, Florida's new law says you can purchase any sized vessel at all, and operate it without any training whatsoever, for 90 days. Sounds to me like a successful lobbying effort.

I know of few activities where less or no training produces positive results. If your argument is that Boater safety training would not result in fewer fatalities, Or that there's no evidence that it would. I guess we'll have to see how it goes now with those states that have decided to implement programs.

If I were implementing rules, I'd certainly target the most likely suspects, I don't think making sailors take a required course will have a significant impact.

If Saving lives were the ultimate goal, I would imagine that making it a requirement that everyone on an open boat 25 foot or less wear a life jacket, might save more lives than making everyone in the universe take a course. Along with Periodic DUI stops. But, there's no political will to do that. So they blanket everyone lest they offend someone.

One last comment, Let's assume that the Sailor of this thread that was killed had training. If the other Boater did not ( don't know) , it would show up in the stats as a " trained" fatality. Raw numbers don't tell a complete story. They need some additional context. ie How many fatalities of trained boaters were caused by untrained or inebriated ones or visa versa.
 
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