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x62617, what the Pilot Chart is indicating is that 30-40% of the time, the wind will be favorable. That means 60-70% of the time it will not be favorable. Remember, during the winter time, clouds over Hawaii become storms in California. In the Pacific, weather moves in cycles of 4-6 days between storms, which is consistent with what the almanac (what a Pilot Chart really is) is telling you. It is also saying that you will be sailing in a cross-current. Down-load the Pilot chart for July to see why that is the month most mariners prefer to head towards Hawaii. Pilot Charts don’t give you everything, you should also be working with a weather router or at least looking at NOAA’s GRIB files if you are a proficient weather forecaster. As you will be sailing towards weather, you don’t have very many options in the Alberg to sail around on-coming storms. Fortunately, it has a good reputation and if the boat is well prepared you should have nothing more than a very rough (and probably miserable) passage. Your only option to avoid weather is to head south. You might want to take your passport in the off chance something bad happens and you wind up in Mexico.

As you are only one week away from your trip, I’m assuming that you are looking for validation more than anything. When I raced to Hawaii in ’08, we made it in 12 days (we took 2nd place) and sailed under spinnaker for 10 of them. What kind of sail inventory is the Alberg taking? How many helmsmen and what are their experience levels? I guess that your average VMG is going to be somewhere between 4 and 5 and, I think your passage will be more like 20 - 24 days. Of course, I know nothing about this particular vessel and crew so if you would be so kind and supply me with some details so I can become more optimistic.
 

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x62617, How well do you know this particular Alberg and its skipper? Were they and you referred to each other or is this trip in response to an ad? Have you seen pictures of the boat in question? You really need to ask a lot of pointed and detailed questions concerning this trip. Things, like "what is your energy budget", and is the boat only equipped with an auto helm or is there something like a Monitor Wind Vane? What is the watch schedule and what exactly will be your duties and responsibilities? Everyone going through the Academy has to take some sailing training. How far did your skipper go? Was he a watch captain on a 44 or higher? Did he spend his junior summer racing? I occasionally sail with an Academy grad - The USNA is no guarantee that he is "god's gift to mariners". I'm not saying don't go, you just need to have your eyes wide open. Here is a little picture taken not too far off the coast in California in mid March and during one of those lulls between late season weather systems. Are you ready for three weeks of this?

 
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