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Hey Mark, your old friend is visiting us again.
 

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Totally stressing me out. My boat is in Rodney. Will be loaded at port vieux port. Was going to happen Friday at 6 am, The trip from Rodney to Vieux port is 40 nm. Plan was to move boat Thursday and load Friday. Chris says tract is fairly certain. Strength somewhat uncertain but at least squalls Thursday night into Friday. maybe to 45 kts.
I’m not there and depending on someone else . So far told him the obvious. Talk to shipping company. If they have decided to delay loading boats safer in Rodney than port vieux port. Delay leaving Rodney.
 

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Latest NOOA track has Gonzalo moving to Cat 1 but dropping back to TS as it passes between Grenada and the St Vincent... Fingers, toes (and everything else that crosses) for everyone who had to leave their boats down in that vicinity. This was never expected to reach Hurricane force but hopefully he doesn’t keep growing.
 

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We've seen tracks from Grenada to north of St. Lucia at this point with wind to 65 mph down to about 5 here, depending on which site one goes to. Not good, so I'll begin my own investigation this afternoon. It does appear as though it will break apart after Barbados if it goes north.
It is Vieux Fort, and it is an open roadstead (shelter from north and east only), so the ship may put to sea for the duration and return after if it is financially feasible. Good luck.
 
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Loading boat onto ship at 1700 tomorrow. Then ship beats it North. Think boat may actually be safer lashed to deck of a ship then strapped down on land or in a slip. Saw and heard about the destruction up in BVIs last go around. Stuff on the hard faired worse then keel boats centered in a double slipway and very securely fastened to pilings not docks. Just worry about loading. Will take a very deep breathe once ship starts to head northwest.
 

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Glad you are going to get ahead of this. Will be a big relief, I am sure.

My old boat was on the hard in St Thomas for Irma - actually fell onto Pizza Pi... you are right that well secured boats fared better provided nothing else hit them - that was the problem for a lot of boats still in the water -all the badly secured boats crashing into them.
 

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Glad you are going to get ahead of this. Will be a big relief, I am sure.

My old boat was on the hard in St Thomas for Irma - actually fell onto Pizza Pi... you are right that well secured boats fared better provided nothing else hit them - that was the problem for a lot of boats still in the water -all the badly secured boats crashing into them.
I recall the pic. This may not be the thread, but I'd love to hear your thoughts about the charter business down there this coming Winter. I've decided not to send CYOA a deposit and just wait and see what happens and what may be available if life looks better in Feb/Mar. Does a CYOA survive, do the individual owners of the fleet make their payments, etc?
 

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Looked at the usual stuff this AM. Still no certainty. But some agreements. If it stays south and strikes Grenada it will be a TS. If it goes north a 1 or 2 hurricane. MarineTraffic says my ship is doing okay so still hoping after 1700 I’m out of there. My uneducated read is Bequia/northern parts of grenadines should be real worried. All very low lying and going to see effects regardless of variation in tract. Good news is bad part remains only 10-20m across.
 

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Well, at this point I've got nothing. Only that it is/will slow down a bit. My models show it from the southern bays of Grenada to St Lucia. No two alike. Can't even see anything coming down across NA that will push the raggedy high to the east, allowing Gonzalo to slip north more. Wind speeds here from 13 knots to a low cat 1?????
Since it has/will slow a bit that gives you about 12 more hours even if it goes north Out, so I foresee no problems for you.
 

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The NOAA afternoon update has it failing to move north and retaining hurricane force through the islands - seems a hard one to read as other models are all over the place.... but bodes well for Outbound even if loading runs a little slower than planned.
 

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The NOAA afternoon update has it failing to move north and retaining hurricane force through the islands - seems a hard one to read as other models are all over the place.... but bodes well for Outbound even if loading runs a little slower than planned.
For us here in Tyrrel, the farther south the better as that will keep the winds in the eastern quadrant, even if they are stronger. We're well protected to the east, north and south. West is the only direction that will give us a hassle.
Trinidad is offering safe harbor, but only to those who fear for their lives. However, immediately after the storm passes you must leave again and Grenada has not made a statement as to whether those who do this can return w/o quarantine.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 9.6N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 9.8N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 10.1N 52.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 10.5N 55.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 11.2N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 11.9N 62.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 12.6N 65.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 14.0N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
 

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So, the forecasts are all over the place. Why? I went searching for a possible answer. Would you believe that C-19 may be at least partially to blame for this, too?
You may find this very interesting.
"Geneva, 7 May 2020 - The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is concerned about the increasing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the quantity and quality of weather observations and forecasts, as well as atmospheric and climate monitoring.

Meteorological measurements taken from aircraft have plummeted by an average 75-80% compared to normal, but with very large regional variations; in the southern hemisphere, the loss is closer to 90%. Surface-based weather observations are in decline, especially in Africa and parts of Central and South America where many stations are manual rather than automatic."
 

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Less global commerce , less shipping, less observations. Less tourism and business travel, less flights and less observations. Heard about this in the spring. Furthermore less pooling of satellite data for political reasons. Net result degradation of forecasting.
so as Siberia and Canadian tundra melts releasing climate changing gasses, steering air currents distort and our hurricane season is off to an early start the data used for modeling is curtailed. Oh joy.
 

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Looks like Gonzalo petering out as it remains on its southerly track and will be a non event by the time it reaches the islands. All good news for those in its path.
 

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Still glad I’m out of there. Named storm season ain’t over by a long shot. Remain concerned season is getting longer. Frequency variation is +/- but yearly rate of intense storms seems to be increasing. what we don’t need is for Texas to get a bad one while being a hotspot for covid. No way to distance in a shelter.
 

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We've had a few gusts here in the mangroves to 40 knots already, along with some heavy, but by no means torrential, winds. Most of my models show it hitting Tobago, which is mighty rare and even rarer, and quite ironic for those who sailed there to miss Gonzalo, it seems like it may actually affect the ABCs more than here!
Gonzalo continues it's tradition of being a non-traditional storm.
 

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Well, just as Gonzalo 1 was not your typical storm, Gonzalo 2 wasn't either. I shall forever remember it as the storm that never was. With max winds here in the mangroves in Carriacou of 42 knots at around 6AM this morning.
 

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Keep your eyes to the East Capta. Think there’s going to be a lot of waves and little shear. Maybe it will peak in September as usual but note they are up to G already. My initial plan was sail back myself in the spring of 2021 or in November and go to the keys. Think this is going to be an unusual season so don’t let up your guard. Glad you made out ok.
 
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