[smurphny]

This is an interesting article about the accuracy of storm prediction models from Jeff Masters of Weather Underground: Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Which Hurricane Model Should You Trust? | Weather Underground

 

[smurphny]

After reading through this article, it seems that the forecasts have certainly improved but, as the graphs indicate, are still only partially reliable. Storms are still not 100% predictable, even in the shorter time periods. I guess the best we can do is to look at as many sources as possible and make our own judgements as to what actions to take. My primary tool is the NOAA weatherfax system, combined with as many other opinions as possible.