SailNet Community banner

1 - 20 of 88 Posts

·
Otter
Joined
·
331 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Im here in NJ and based in Island Heights on the Toms River. As luck would have it I'm going to a wedding in the Hamptons this weekend but leaving tomorrow afternoon. Currently looking like it may fall from Cape May to Atlantic Highlands if my predictions are correct. Either way, the only day to hunker the boat down is tomorrow morning . I'm torn between going overkill and going under kill since I won't be in the area to make changes. I'm going to add lines and fenders and remove both sails. Whats everyone else doing ?
 

·
Otter
Joined
·
331 Posts
Discussion Starter #3
Yeah. They are saying that it's going to impact Annapolis as of now. All I know is I said Sandy was going to hit our area and no one believed me. Then the day before my clients were ringing my phone off the hook trying to find a place to haul. Yeah, it's only a TS, but I'm going to be up in the Hamptons, so that means however I tie it up is how it's gonna be. I'm sure the marina will adjust lines of need be but I'm not relying on it. Some people are hauling out because they live out of state so their boat is a vacation home but at this point the owner said if you're going on the hard, you're staying there for the rest of the season. I sail as long as possible.
 

·
Master Mariner
Joined
·
8,393 Posts
Before anyone gets too complacent and pays too much attention to the NWS/NHC and their prognostications, take a moment to ask Mark of Sea Life just what a forecast minor tropical depression can become in just an hour or so.
The one truly predictable thing about tropical cyclones is their unpredictability.
 

·
Otter
Joined
·
331 Posts
Discussion Starter #5
Exactly. I learned that a low category storm can devastate my area. A few models show a few spaghetti models with one taking a late Sandy like hook back to the same area, while a few others show it headed back east. Things can change within hours as stated before. I guess all I can do is take a gamble on the best method to keep her safe. If not, my insurance is up to date.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,067 Posts
Before anyone gets too complacent and pays too much attention to the NWS/NHC and their prognostications, take a moment to ask Mark of Sea Life just what a forecast minor tropical depression can become in just an hour or so.
The one truly predictable thing about tropical cyclones is their unpredictability.
I can agree with that. Was coming down the NE coast when "irene" popped up and was predicted to direct hit on Cape Cod. Being prudent I exited the Cape Cod area and headed for NYC only to get directly run-over by Irene with a 13-14ft. surge to add to the 'fun'.
In any large storm along the NE coast, Id add that one should never blindly run to known 'ports and anchorages' .... I got kicked out of (forced to leave) two North Shore of Long Island harbors when running from Irene, so much for New York 'hospitality'.
 

·
Otter
Joined
·
331 Posts
Discussion Starter #7
My marina just called and said if I want to be on the haul list, I need to let them know by tomorrow morning or else that can't guarantee a haul. Oh well. She's staying wet then. I don't have spring lines on my boat. She's 24 foot so I'll add some springs around the winches, throw some fenders and balls over the side. Only have one neighbor to the starboard. I'll stagger the masts as well.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,529 Posts
Im here in NJ and based in Island Heights on the Toms River. As luck would have it I'm going to a wedding in the Hamptons this weekend but leaving tomorrow afternoon. Currently looking like it may fall from Cape May to Atlantic Highlands if my predictions are correct. Either way, the only day to hunker the boat down is tomorrow morning . I'm torn between going overkill and going under kill since I won't be in the area to make changes. I'm going to add lines and fenders and remove both sails. Whats everyone else doing ?
Looks like you should be able to make it back to New Jersey before Joaquin hits the area. If it hits. Latest I saw had it off Hatteras on Sunday. I would not stay too long in the Hamptons though. Gonna be very wet for the next couple of days out there anyway. Bring your rain gear. :)
 

·
Learning the HARD way...
Joined
·
7,194 Posts
latest spaghetti is ALL over the map;




I'm no expert, but I find it hard to believe that it will pull that sudden 120+º (from 240º to 000º) hook to starboard.

[EDIT] NOTE that these images update automagically! Therefore, the 120º turn which I am so skeptical of (and which is still there as I type on 9-30-2015 at 09:30) will probably not be visible as the models are updated.
 

·
Otter
Joined
·
331 Posts
Discussion Starter #11
Guess they changed it. The models I were looking at showed around hatteras on saturday. In any event, we can only do what we can do. Like I said, I never need spring lines and don't have the cleats so I have no choice for this. Around the winches and oversized balls overboard.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,529 Posts
latest spaghetti is ALL over the map;




I'm no expert, but I find it hard to believe that it will pull that sudden 120+º (from 240º to 000º) hook to starboard.
What a mess! Looks like a lot of tracks head over the ICW and some into upstate New York. Could disrupt cruises south and mess up the Erie Canal too. I'm a little worried about coastal flooding here, A few days of nne winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 29 could make it tough for the harbors on the North shore of LI to drain between tides and this is before Joaquin may head this way. :(
 

·
Otter
Joined
·
331 Posts
Discussion Starter #13
latest spaghetti is ALL over the map;




I'm no expert, but I find it hard to believe that it will pull that sudden 120+º (from 240º to 000º) hook to starboard.
What a mess! Looks like a lot of tracks head over the ICW and some into upstate New York. Could disrupt cruises south and mess up the Erie Canal too. I'm a little worried about coastal flooding here, A few days of nne winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 29 could make it tough for the harbors on the North shore of LI to drain between tides and this is before Joaquin may head this way.
That's my fear is the flooding. Last full moon I pulled into the slip and the water was about touching the top of the bulkhead. It usually sits around the upper whaler. The Toms River is a nightmare with flooding with the right tides and wind direction since the water has no where to go. Add a high tide and that was one of the major factors of Sandy.
 

·
Otter
Joined
·
331 Posts
Discussion Starter #16
Theres a new 'low' to form over Hatteras in 96 hrs. ... it all depend if this new Low 'couples' with Joachim and steers it into land or it stays detached and lets it continue to the N-NNE. Crap shoot.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hrsfc.gif
Yep. I surf and used to pray for hurricanes. After gutting my house and seeing what difference 50 miles in any direction can make it kind of humbled me. Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst with what little time I have . Let's hope it bumps out to sea. We used to haul our boat by ourselves in situations like this and keep it on a hill in a yard. That luxury is gone since my back is shot and I can't drop and step the mast.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,067 Posts
As of 6AM today, virtually all the spaghetti models are predicting that H. Joachin will have a high probability of hitting the outer banks/mouth of the Chesapeake. For us Chesapeake sailors that means the Ches will be on the 'super-windy' side of the storm and will possibly have severe flooding / high surge for the whole Ches.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

Looks like DivingOtter's Rutgers friend is dead-on with his prediction of what the newly forming inverted trough in NC is going to do in 'steering' this storm inland.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,341 Posts
Looking more and more threatening. From my friend who's a meteorologist at Rutgers.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=soMdbo4F3eY
I have been monitoring this hurricane now since this former tropical storm Ida was just crazy in the mid Atlantic... The forecast calls for this hurricane to move up the north Atlantic coast... nothing says this storm can't turn and hit the lower southeast coast... time will tell... right now we have been experiencing huge tides (flooding along the coasts) here in Savannah.
 

·
Old enough to know better
Joined
·
4,343 Posts
I have been monitoring this hurricane now since this former tropical storm Ida was just crazy in the mid Atlantic... The forecast calls for this hurricane to move up the north Atlantic coast... nothing says this storm can't turn and hit the lower southeast coast... time will tell... right now we have been experiencing huge tides (flooding along the coasts) here in Savannah.
Well tides are really high because the moon is so close, so it is a double whammy. I believe that was what both Irene and Sandy so damaging, was that the tides were already very high before the storm surge hit. But the storm tracking on this one seems especially wide ranging.
 
1 - 20 of 88 Posts
Top