[hpeer]

Good afternoon folks, I’m coming late to this conversation but I’ve been involved with it deeply elsewhere. I’d like to add something or three.

I think it’s great the conversation is moving towards discussing how we react to the situation. And in my mind the situation is broader than simply AWG, although that is of great concern. Broadly our actions need to also consider: pollution, resource depletion, our economic situation, human migration, and other items. I think there is broad agreement that we are overstressing our environment (natural and otherwise) beyond logical limits. There is a time to start pulling back and it’s now.

And I’m not a fan of the big infrastructure projects touted as a cure all.

I would like to claim that, to start, we simply need to Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle. We need to move sharply away from the Comsumer society we have become. It’s wasteful, hurtful and does no one much good.

However, even doing just that would have a strong negative impact on our economy which demands everlasting growing consumption. Ain’t gonna happen, nothing is infinite. It’s only a questioner wether we get ahead of the curve and start willfully changing our economy to something more efficient or do we wait until practical and physical limitations force it upon us?

And I think this is where a lot of the real issue is, how do we do what is necessary without trashing our economy? I don’t know, but it does seem inevitable that the economic model we now have is physically dooming us on many fronts. And we are not going to make any kind of significant progress toward a healthier planet until we do step away from Consumerisim. Maybe back to Capitalisim would be enough, I could argue that, Capitalisim has a good dose of high efficient, no waste, long term planning within it. Maybe even that is not sufficient. I don’t know.

I don’t think we can come to grips with any solutions until we understand that the first adaption we need to make is to change our economy towards sustainability. How we do that is a very difficult question.

 

[MikeOReilly]

Well put Howard. That’s really what I’m aiming at when I question how much effort any of us are really willing to put into this. It’s not just a question of changing lightbulbs or recycling straws. The real problems spring from consumption rates and how we organize our societies.

That’s what makes all these problems, from AGW to mass human migration, so difficult to deal with; they are either a consequence of, or are exacerbated by, our global social and economic structures.

Consumerism and demands for infinite growth are killing the planet (or rather, they are rapidly altering global eco-systems — the planet doesn’t really care). We all nod our heads and agree, but to put it simply: how many shirts do each of us own? Now, how many do we actually need? Most of the world’s population lives with two, perhaps three sets of clothes. How many do each of us have? According to recent studies the average North American disposes of 65 pounds of clothes each year, and purchases an equal amount. This is insane!

https://www.becomingminimalist.com/clutter-stats/

Altering this mindset is the kind of change that is required on our part. We need to use less. But I see little sign that most of us are willing to make this change. Some are, and I suspect they are more highly represented here than in the general populace, but mostly we’re moving along with the status quo. More, More! MORE!!

No one should downplay the challenge we face. It’s easy to say we should all use less, but our entire infrastructure here in Canada and USA are structured such that it makes individual action almost meaningless. MASS action matters, but how do you get everyone to use less? Especially when we see the quick argument raised: What About China!!

 

[SanderO]

USA is most definitely a consumer economy... and consumerism is indeed part of the problem because it produces waste and uses enormous amount of energy to mine, manufacture, ship and so on. Consumer economy represents a huge fraction of the labor force.

This is something that will take multiple decades to change and even then it will only be a small change.

 

[hpeer]

Mike,

Well it starts at the top and that’s why I’m so pissed at Obama. He could have used his bully pulpit to educate the American (and Canadian) public to the issue. He didn’t need to promise anything or introduce legislation, just elevate the conversation, be adult about it, put the prestige of his office behind it. Golden opportunity lost, we got Paris instead.

*****, moan, groan! What to do? I don’t know, because if the top leaders don’t talk about it, introduce the issues to us it will never go anywhere. I fear AOC did more harm than good with her GND which was poorly thought out and rolled out. Before you introduce solutions you need to introduce the problem. I understand the fear and desire for quick action, but at this point we are going to take a hit no matter what. And if we go off half cocked and muck it up it will just slow down the eventual required action.

Maybe the Chinese really are in the lead. I read elsewhere they now admit their population has peaked or will shortly and they will have an inevitable decline in population. Not unlike Japan. Thus they will be forced, for other reasons, to deal with degrowth. The Japanese seem to be surviving, although I know pitifully little about it. So it seems doable. Or maybe each Japanese buys an additional 5 pounds of clothes per year to sustain consumption? Somehow I doubt that.

Here’s the articlenon China.

https://peakoil.com/_amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-asia-china-46772503

 

[outbound]

Pure capitalism maybe an answer but agree we haven’t ever truly had Adam Smith’s capitalism nor are we likely to ever see it. I’m fairly libertarian as I have little faith in lawyers or government. Still, the basic structure must evolve which as correctly pointed out requires a cultural change. Regardless that Trumps friends and business partners will be injured by accepting the paradigm of human causation to climate change more Americans do accept this than not. States are taking positive action and from my son in law I hear business and our military are as well once you exclude transportation. Even there movement is occurring.
I’m not that overwhelming pessimistic. Expect we will see one or more likely two degrees of rise with catastrophic results even with a hard push to mitigate. But hopefully we will. Hopefully we prevent further rise before the universal collapse all human societies.
In terms of my sailing.
I’ve gotten rid of all my light air sails as I never use them. I rarely rig a preventer as the seas are more lumpy so having a wave hit the back of the main and destroying the boom is more likely.i use a pole on a headsail less frequently and give up some speed for safety. Now downwind May just fly a headsail with no pole nor main. I don’t believe any one weather source. By that I mean I lump all presentations depending on one source together and only consider those using different models as different.
I’ve given up on the old school rules like “red at night sailors delight. Red in the morning sailor take warning” or rain then wind topsails come in.wind than rain topsails remain.” They seem to no longer apply as humidity doesn’t seem to correlate to weather like it once did.
Folks can we return to talking about sailing?

 

[hpeer]

Outbound,

Truth is at my age I don’t expect to see a heck of a lot of change do to climate change, down here in the Carribean.

When I’m up North it’s different, the changes are much bigger, but erratic. 2 years ago I had to delay launching because there was an iceberg grounded in my morning field. Last summer the temps were so high I could not sit on the back porch many afternoons. Each year was exceptional, but in completely different ways. Not a single clue what this season will bring.

Everything we do about climate change really effects our coming generations.

 

[outbound]

I have grandchildren so maybe my perspective is different. Even as a young child was taught what we leave behind is not only our genetic descendants but our legacy. Still think part of that is whether you clean up after yourself.

 

[SanderO]

The NGD was not intended, I believe as a recipe or a blueprint to follow or how to proceed as much as a way to get this issue discussed and debated in congress, the media and around kitchen tables and of course in watering holes. I believe the ND like wise (guess) was a series of legislative efforts which resulted in organizations like WPA... which then rolled out programs and projects.

 

[hpeer]

I have grandchildren so maybe my perspective is different. Even as a young child was taught what we leave behind is not only our genetic descendants but our legacy. Still think part of that is whether you clean up after yourself.

I’ve heard it said a major difference between humans and the great apes is they foul this bed, they can afford to because they move to a new bed every night. Now if you look at Earth as our bed......

A lot of our “success” as a species is we discovered a whole string of new resources to exploit. The New World, with immense resources, allowed us to grow rapidly, the USA was instrumental is WWI and WWII which without our resources would have ended differently, then we found how to export our crap jobs and pollution to other countries. Sooner or later we run outta new beds.

 

[hpeer]

The NGD was not intended, I believe as a recipe or a blueprint to follow or how to proceed as much as a way to get this issue discussed and debated in congress, the media and around kitchen tables and of course in watering holes. I believe the ND like wise (guess) was a series of legislative efforts which resulted in organizations like WPA... which then rolled out programs and projects.

However it was intended the discussion it brought up isn’t about AGW it’s about massive deficits, make work projects and the threat of Socialisim.

IMHO we need to do as much as possible as soon as possible about AGW and some other issues. We need to develop consensus to move forward where ever possible. That will require learned and wise leadership. I’m look hard but I’m not seeing it anywhere on the political spectrum.

 

[SanderO]

However it was intended the discussion it brought up isn’t about AGW it’s about massive deficits, make work projects and the threat of Socialisim.

IMHO we need to do as much as possible as soon as possible about AGW and some other issues. We need to develop consensus to move forward where ever possible. That will require learned and wise leadership. I’m look hard but I’m not seeing it anywhere on the political spectrum.

Anti climate warning is not seen as a profit engine. It's conceived of by many as the reverse... a huge spending effort with not ROI no way to make profits... If you don't make profits it's like evil socialism or communism.

 

[Jay Flynn]

Since Miami was mentioned as not having sunk, that’s true, it hasn’t sunk... not yet.
But as someone who has lived in Miami most of my almost 70 years, I can say unequivocally, there are areas that flood now at high tides that never did before.
Additionally, Miami Beach is spending roughly $500 million on (questionable) pumps and other flood control measures due to never seen before flooding. Miami recently passed a $400 million bond for (questionable) pumps in the Brickell area, again due to never seen before flooding (except in hurricanes).
Miami is especially vulnerable due to our porous limestone foundation. We get water from six sides, including from the ground up.
Clearly something is happening, that fact is not in question, and the folks who are much smarter than I am, and have gone to school much longer than I did (and yes, got better much better grades than I did), and who study this for a living, and who recreate these conditions with these outcomes in their labs, say this is primarily due to the effects of burning fossil fuels.
So who am I going to believe, these scientists, or the folks who think the earth is flat, the moon landing was filmed in Pete’s garage, and who climb in bed every night wearing cone shaped tinfoil hats so they can pick up cosmic signals?
My money is on the smart guys, it usually pays off.

 

[kfxsinscappoose]

Yes. Expect lots of wild swings in temperatures and humidity. Look for massive movements of people who are seeking food, water and a place to resettle. Expect wars in already hot zones such as the Gulf, the Indian subcontinent, etc. Floods and famine will likely make some places too dangerous to visit. We are already seeing this, but the latest and best estimates is that the level of change is speeding up. Your children and especially your grandchildren will be living in a dangerous and seemingly incoherent era. They will wonder what you did to fight against these trends. Enjoy.

One of the best things we can do is educate ourselves. If you don't mind the academic tone, you might find this website out of the London School of Economics interesting or maybe sobering:
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-resource-100516-033554?journalCode=resource

Finally, Chris Hayes and Joe Rogan have had some great conversations with David Wallace-Wells about his new book. Not for the faint of heart.

 

[Minnewaska]

....Folks can we return to talking about sailing?

Yes, let's do that, my friend. I think we're close enough, for a sailing forum, to understanding where each other is coming from. It's not as far apart as it appears at first. Drinks are on me, when I see you in the Caribe one day. I'm still going, AGW and all.

I'm off to start a new thread...... will new gun laws change your sailing plans.

 

[MikeOReilly]

Unless you cruise in the same area for a long time (multiple decades), it’s going to be hard to separate weather from climate. One of my common questions to locals regarding weather is: “Is this normal?” And usually they have no definite idea.

I think we can detect the impacts of climate change in the shifts of established “go-times” and routing through books like Cornell’s. Perhaps comparing pilot charts over time might reveal the changes as well. But as cruisers we care about what’s happening now, and out days or weeks. IOW, weather.

One of the more immediate impacts on international cruisers is likely the social/economic ones. The stiffening boarders, and increasing costs, that some face are likely more obvious. In some measure these changes are driving by climate change and the added stresses this brings to societies.

Mass migrations of people are part and parcel of this, and it is something we’ll likely see more of as these stresses continue. This will make the easy flow of small cruising boats even harder. I believe Cornell suggests this is one reason for the apparent uptick in more regional cruising — people are staying closer to home.

 

[SanderO]

Unless you cruise in the same area for a long time (multiple decades), it’s going to be hard to separate weather from climate. One of my common questions to locals regarding weather is: “Is this normal?” And usually they have no definite idea.

I think we can detect the impacts of climate change in the shifts of established “go-times” and routing through books like Cornell’s. Perhaps comparing pilot charts over time might reveal the changes as well. But as cruisers we care about what’s happening now, and out days or weeks. IOW, weather.

One of the more immediate impacts on international cruisers is likely the social/economic ones. The stiffening boarders, and increasing costs, that some face are likely more obvious. In some measure these changes are driving by climate change and the added stresses this brings to societies.

Mass migrations of people are part and parcel of this, and it is something we’ll likely see more of as these stresses continue. This will make the easy flow of small cruising boats even harder. I believe Cornell suggests this is one reason for the apparent uptick in more regional cruising — people are staying closer to home.

Good post Mike. I have been sailing since 1985 in LIS and cruises north and south. We definitely have a different weather pattern in the summer and shoulder seasons that we had in the late 80s where I sail.

 

[outbound]

Excellent point but you do get some clues. Erosion patterns, coral, fish flora/fauna all talk to you about what’s been going on with an appropriate time scale.
Even in a shorter time frame you can make some reasonable judgments. If you see a once in hundred year event now occur year after year it’s reasonable to assume a new normal is likely.
Then again we have benefits of the “pilots “. If month after month and year after year they don’t match what the weather is your region has changed.
What I know is cruiser discussions of those doing the islands and going back and forth to Europe or the states repetitively reference how their view of things has changed. Yes, this is group think and annedotal so holds no scientific merit but it’s interesting that you hear minor variations of the same thing from multiple voices. Particularly true for the shoulder seasons when people do passages.

 

[joyinPNW]

This has been an absolutely fascinating thread especially since I'm reading David Wallace's new book. I highly recommend it but it's not for faint of heart!

The OP inquired whether CC is affecting our sailing plans. Here in the PNW, the fires that surround us all summer make our typical cruising time unbearable now. Rather than cruising in July-September, we're now contemplating a much earlier time. We'll get rain and gray, not not the smoke.

 

[MikeOReilly]

The OP inquired whether CC is affecting our sailing plans. Here in the PNW, the fires that surround us all summer make our typical cruising time unbearable now. Rather than cruising in July-September, we're now contemplating a much earlier time. We'll get rain and gray, not not the smoke.

These fires affected us in Newfoundland as well. Weeks of crimson red sunsets, dimmer more diffuse skies during the day, and a noticeable diminishment in output from my solar panels.

 

[hpeer]

Mike,

You should have been there a few years ago when they had the big fires in Labrador and had to evacuate Lab City. The smoke was so dense in our town on Bonavista Bay I could not see the headlands one mile away.

That’s at distance of about 500 miles, give it take.

Not one peep on US media.