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Has anyone found a reliable wind forecast and/or App?? I am using Predict Wind and WIndy right now and they are off more than on. I sail out of Narraganset Bay and surrounding waters.

Tnx

Mike
Celtic Breeze
 

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Barquito
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I am no weather expert. However, if you are on Windy.com, for example, you can choose among five different forecast models. Two of those, are the ones the National Weather Service uses (GFS, and NAM). I find it comforting if the different models agree with each other. I they differ significantly, I give a little more weight to the one with the forecast that could cause problems for me. In the end, I would think it very difficult to predict local conditions accurately every day.
 

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Beneteau 393
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I doubt you'll get better than Predict Wind... They have extra models for subscribers.

But remember that local conditions can be completely different from these regional weather forecasters.

I don't know Narraganset Bay so can't advise... But if it's likely controlled by local winds then perhaps you need a local weather source?

Mark 😊
 

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For local cruising... (LIS etc.) the only concerning forecasts are for winds 20 and gusting 30. If you're sailing into it... no fun when you had the crazy waves. In the summer the problem is more likely no wind than too much.
 

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To say the Windy or PredictWind are accurate or inaccurate isn’t the right way to look at it. All Apps just take the same data from various models and display them in ways that make sense to the app developers. If you like their visualization, you’ll like the app.
The models are different computer programs that take historical data and current info to churn out forecasts.
it’s important to know that different models cover different parts of the globe, have different update cycles (2-4 times a day) and have different forecast resolutions, some more local than others.
This article does a good job of explaining the differences, in a way that can help you use them.
I like ECMWF and I always compare with GFS and within 18 hours of my sail HRRR which refreshes every hour and has a 3 km resolution.
 

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In the Narraganset Bay area doesn't the weather usually come across from the Great Lakes, or up from Cape Hatteras?

Couldn't one get the Observations off the net for a few places that will be a couple of hours up-weather from your sailing area?

Mark
 

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I'm using NOAA Weather app on my phone and it's as good as any. I have yet to find any meteorologist, even the meteorologists at Pacific Fleet headquarters, Pearl Harbor, who is capable of getting things right 50% of the time or more.
If it is important weather, like a hurricane, I do my own forecasting. After all, it's my ass on the line, not theirs.
 
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Try Sailflow where we sail on the west coast they are mostly dead on but then we don’t really have weather here
 

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In PredictWind one can use "validation" for a certain area to see which model has given the best predictions for speed and direction during the last week for a certain area. That may help to find out which model is best for the area. But to be honnest it still can be very confusion when looking at the predictions of different models, as they may give very contradicting results (at least for the Adriatic sea) and local effects can hardly be captured. Only large developing wheather systems can be modelled realible.
 

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Mason 33
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Has anyone found a reliable wind forecast and/or App?? I am using Predict Wind and WIndy right now and they are off more than on. I sail out of Narraganset Bay and surrounding waters.

Tnx

Mike
Celtic Breeze
I use SailFlow and it seems to be pretty good here on Lake Michigan; the wind here is so erratic though, I think it's nearly impossible.
 

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Has anyone found a reliable wind forecast and/or App?? I am using Predict Wind and WIndy right now and they are off more than on. I sail out of Narraganset Bay and surrounding waters.

Tnx

Mike
Celtic Breeze
We use both Windy and Predict wind apps, we use NOAA as well, all of them are equally uncertain in their projections, but use all of them, use the median between their forecasts forr Ref your own estimate of wind. Do remember that wind is among the hardest aspects of weather to predict with accuracy, all these predictions get their info from the same place, that is mostly from NOAA, so, always assume the worst and be pleased that it wasn’t as bad as it could have been.
 

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To say the Windy or PredictWind are accurate or inaccurate isn’t the right way to look at it. All Apps just take the same data from various models and display them in ways that make sense to the app developers. If you like their visualization, you’ll like the app. The models are different computer programs that take historical data and current info to churn out forecasts. it’s important to know that different models cover different parts of the globe, have different update cycles (2-4 times a day) and have different forecast resolutions, some more local than others. This article does a good job of explaining the differences, in a way that can help you use them. I like ECMWF and I always compare with GFS and within 18 hours of my sail HRRR which refreshes every hour and has a 3 km resolution.
This is a great answer. I find reliability is based on location. Some locations mostly predict that they are going to be unpredictable. The windy app also has past wind history. I rely on the historic wind rose data in considering predictability. I also love that I can’t know exactly what is going to happen!😬 Enjoy!
 

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This is a great answer. I find reliability is based on location. Some locations mostly predict that they are going to be unpredictable. The windy app also has past wind history. I rely on the historic wind rose data in considering predictability. I also love that I can’t know exactly what is going to happen!😬 Enjoy!
I'll echo this answer and the one from AWT2_Sail , as well. I use all 4 or 5 of the services sailing here in coastal NC and up and down the East Coast. But recently, for the reasons aforementioned, I have grown more fond of the new HRRR model on Windy Pro.
The fact is.. that during this time of year, and with coastal near-shore weather, "pop-up" thunderstorms and other violent weather are liable to appear for a brief moment or disappear in the same timeframe, confounding even the best guess local forecast. These are the sudden storms that will bring on the high winds, driving, intense rain and choppy conditions in the Bay as well as the Sounds and Rivers. We are even starting to see more of the "derechos." which personally, I am always on the lookout for and that used to be thought of as rare.
A derecho (pronounced similar to "deh-REY-cho") is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms ... (Wikipedia) These are usually "straight-line", particularly nasty and can cause a lot of damage.

Acquainting yourself with the conditions and signs that bring on this type of weather behavior and make it likely is about the best one can do. Of course, I am not talking about the fronts (lows) that move across and are entirely predictable 2-3 days in advance.
An excellent manual for learning to "read" and understand the weather is Modern Marine Weather by David Burch. I'm thinking it is in it's 3rd edition now and has been an bottomless source of traditional knowledge and helpful information to me.

Steven
 

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I use these:
  • Dark Sky for rain. (App or web - will be discontinued in Dec 2022 and become Apple’s default weather source)
  • RadarScope Pro for Radar. (App only but amazing. The best radar app by far.)
  • Windy for general sailing conditions. (App and web with lots of features including ocean current models)
  • FastSeas for planning short hops of 100 miles or so. (Simple and easy and accurate using Windy for data)
  • Predict Wind / Predict Wind Offshore for long passages. (App and web that feeds routes to my B&G)
 
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