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He sees other indications of a slower recovery maybe 3 years till it bounces back.

Australia's All Ords (like the US Dow) only recovered from the 2008 GFC in... wait for it... 2019!

And is now back to what it was in 2006.

Theres a few takaways:

It *can* take longer than we think.
The USA can't just stay in industrial lockdown till every Doctor's case load is Zero
What happens in the USA really does affect the whole world. Every country/state/principality...
Then the USA sneezes the rest of the world catches cold

A 'western' country cannot do things like some countries can: Seal of cities; weld apartment doors shut with residents inside; Order factories to reopen even at high risk to employees; do politics are gun point. For petes sake the USA can't even lock down Rhode Island!!

It may take longer than China... and every day China will be using this advantage, as any competitor would.



Mark
 

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S2 7.9 Bear Lake, UT
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Australia's All Ords (like the US Dow) only recovered from the 2008 GFC in... wait for it... 2019!

And is now back to what it was in 2006.

Theres a few takaways:

It *can* take longer than we think.
The USA can't just stay in industrial lockdown till every Doctor's case load is Zero
What happens in the USA really does affect the whole world. Every country/state/principality...
Then the USA sneezes the rest of the world catches cold

Mark
I don't think you can take that decade as an example. Even during the great depression, the economy bounced back fairly quickly. That decade is called the lost decade in terms of it was unprecedented in that the stock market did not recover in that long of a time.

This is more than the USA sneezing, this is the entire world's economy sick and lying on the couch for 2 months. It looks like the lockdown in Wuhan only lasted 2 months and now they are relaxing restrictions now. It will be new territory to see how this 2 month vacation will affect the world's economy.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lost-decade.asp
 

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Captain Obvious
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2,325 Posts
This disaster won't make much of a difference in the long term. Even right now people are longing to go back to the way they were. Eating pork rinds in their $80k Dodge Diesel Truck on the way down to a Burger King. Sure the good old boys may go bankrupt and the Feds will print money and give it to the bank that wrote the truck loan. That has happened before. They will be back with a different truck and a different corporate name before you know it.

I expect real estate to go bananas around my area as city residents look to " move up to the country" for the fresh air and space. I expect our politicians to go back to their petty ******** and Americans everywhere to eat it up.
 
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