Can't answer you except with an analogy to my job, Pilot.

You have flights where you face weather challenges you have flights where you don't. A healthy respect for the weather keeps you alive, not fear of it. You learn by doing, don't take off (or set sail) praying for a clear route, take-off knowing that you are ready to handle what may come at you. Plan for the best weather window and go but always be ready for the worst, notice I said ready, not scared when you are scared you make mistakes, when you are ready you make decisions.

Hope this helps!

Blue skies and (light) tailwinds!

 

Welcome to SN......First of all, you need a new set of friends. LOL

Why don't you take some sailing lesson and learn it well, and then decide for yourself. No one can guarantee your safety. But i would rather to sail across the ocean than to ride a motorcycle across the United States. Sailing is safer than riding a bike.

You can die in the ocean without hitting a storm. Hitting a storms or multiple storms does not mean that you will die. Preparation, experience and readiness are the key.

I am sure others will add more.

 

Hey pack. Welcome to SN dude.

Read "Handling Storms at Sea" - by Hal Roth. He does a great job of putting everything in perspective.

But if you're looking for a "guarantee" - your bar might be a little high.

 

People would not do it if it was not challenging and airplanes fall out of the sky pretty regular

 

But just for perspective - driving a car on a busy highway at rush hour is pretty risky too. And no one thinks that's unusual.

This powerpoint from US Naval Academy (look at page 6) - puts driving at 30 deaths/100k participants, riding a bike at 0.09, sailing at 0.03 (all normalized for average hours of participation per person).

 

Zed - that's a great report...and fits with this thread we were batting around a while back...

How "afraid" should we be of sailing?

 

It is one of my greatest fears in life to get caught in a major storm helpless at sea. With all of the best equipment, technology and skill, are the odds still good that I will get caught in a major storm and die?

I have a friend that says "there is no way to avoid all major storms...and at some point you are pretty much guarenteed to have to face a storm that will possibly capsize your boat"

Once again, I realize that all hobbies come with safety hazards. But is it possible to almost gaurantee that I will never be killed or capsized by a terrible storm?

Get some new friends.

Seriously, the part of your post that bothered me is the word "helpless". A well prepared sailor is not helpless. There are many techniques that can be used to help you weather a gale and continue in your passage.

Of course there are no guarantees. Just you and your abilities against what ever Mother Nature throws at you. But it is one of the few areas where you can truly test yourself. As Bob Bitchen says "Attitude: the difference between an ordeal and an adventure."

 

The only guarantee life offers us is death.

 

package, fifty years ago talking about the pacific he might have been right. Today? The key word is SKILL. That's the only variable left in the equations.

The Atlantic is covered much better than the Pacific, and IIRC there are a couple of key weather satellites out of order right now over the Pacific, but the bottom line is that with live satellite imagery and modern meteorology, there's dman good weathercasting for most of the planet.

This doesn't guarantee your safety, but it does ensure that IF YOU WORK ON THE SKILLS, you will be able to appraise the forecasts and cross safely when there is a reliable weather window. That doesn't mean blindly listening to the forecasts--because you also have to learn when to believe them, and when the confidence level from the forecasters really is not solid.

I've had "solid" forecasts for balmy 5 knot weather turn overnight into 40 knots and 8' waves when simple coastal forecasts weren't so simple. When you hear words like "occluded front" and "stalled"...you throw out the forecast. Other times you'll hear that the jet streams have been unmoving, the wind and weather are clear and consistent for a thousand miles upwind of you, and you can expect them to stay the same for a while.

Assuming of course, "a while" is long enough for you to cross. If something breaks and your week long trip turns into two weeks...there goes the forecast.

Meteorology can get awfully complicated, but with all the online resources at least you can start studying up on it for free!

 

IF YOU WORK ON THE SKILLS, you will be able to appraise the forecasts and cross safely when there is a reliable weather window. That doesn't mean blindly listening to the forecasts--because you also have to learn when to believe them, and when the confidence level from the forecasters really is not solid.

I think that really says it all right there!

 

Once again, I realize that all hobbies come with safety hazards. But is it possible to almost gaurantee that I will never be killed or capsized by a terrible storm?

In one word - No.

I have raced across the Atlantic three times and each time we hit rough weather patches, though nothing like a full blown hurricane. How safe are you crossing the street? It is impossible to give guarantees, as everyone has stated before me. If you build up a high skill level, have a sound boat and a good crew and pick your route and time of year carefully, it can be a fantastic experience that you will treasure for the rest of your life.

Start small and build up. Learn to sail and as you push your personal envelope you will have a much better idea of how far you want to go. If you are starting from scratch you are still years away from being ready to undertake that kind of a voyage. No one can guarantee your safety for day at the beach (especially if you are driving there!) let alone on an ocean crossing. Frankly I feel a good deal safer in the ocean on a good, well crewed boat than on the Long Island Expressway.

 

Pack

The answer to your question is no, not that I have ever sailed across an ocean.

With that said perhaps the first step for you is to taking some sailing lessons, and join a club. If you do, at some point you will find yourself in heavy weather. Assuming you have a good captain and can keep an open mind about it you will find that it is not that big a deal. The boat does most of the work after-all.

My home town hosts CORK, a yearly sailing regatta that attracts people from all over, small dinghy's to 40 foot boats. What is always a pleasure to watch is the kids sailing their lasers and optimists(very small boats) in a heavy blow. They happily bounce along having the time of their lives.

Welcome to SN

John

 

Maybe the question one should ask themselves is:
If I died while sailing, would it have been worth it. If the question is "NO", then I would pick another hobby that is either safer or "IS" worth it.

Another thing to think about even some of the most experienced sailors in the world with the best equipment and training have died sailing. The other thing when things start to go wrong, you cannot pull over, stop and get help like in a car. If you are on an ocean passage, you could be hundreds of miles from help. And even if help were to arrive, that could only be the begining of a long rescue.

The key is to manage the risk through equipment, training, experience, and weather and sea knowledge. But in the end, bad things can still happen, and when they do, it is a much more difficult situation than if you were on dry land.

Go to You Tube and seach "Hell on High Water the Sydney Hobart 1998 race" this is a 5 part series that is great live footage of recuing sailors in 80 knot winds and 60 plus foot waves. there were many deaths during this race. YouTube - Critical Situation Hell on High Water Part 1 This is part 1, do a search for parts 2-5.

 

Actually you should have asked that question to Jessica Watson. Her boat was only knocked down about seven times when she transited the world.
1. She picked a sea worthy boat for her transit.
2. She trusted her boat to come back up after being knocked down.
3. And this was at an ripe old age of sixteen years old.
4. she didn't die... Or she could be an immortal.

 

To some extent it is possible to largely avoid storms depending on where you go. However on some routes eg Fiji to NZ which takes say 9 days one storm is most likely. It is also likely but not certain that at some point on passage you will go through a gale. More so if you take chances in your planning. You are unlikely with normal caution to encounter a hurricane.
With experience and the knowledge and equipment to handle bad weather you will be uncomfortable, and scared but will most likely survive. Some anxiety is normal but with experience you build up your tolerance level.

 

And also remember the crew will usally give up well before the boat. So, no matter what, stay on the boat until she actually sinks. As they say, always step up to your life raft, not down. The thing is also, be prepared for the storm, even if it is very unlikely, otherwise if a storm does come, you are more likely to "freak out".

If what you are describing is what you really want to do, you will make it happen,
Good Luck

 

can sailing guarantee my sefety.

NOPE

Sailing is risky, but you can learn how to take those risks very very carefully. But life can always sneak up on you and bite.

 

I guess the first thing one should do when defining the chances of hitting a storm is defining the storm. A gale is not a storm. A squall is not a storm. When you get to Force 10 or more you're talking storm. 35 knots is a gale. Expect to get caught in many of those. But there are many people (I have friends that did three circumnavigations over ten years) that never get caught in storms.

Is ocean voyaging safer that flying? Hell yes. Far more people have died from planes falling out of the sky than yachts sinking. You just get to do it while you're not alone because there are a lot more people flying than voyaging. But when last did you watch a TV program called Yacht Sinking Investigations?

If you want a safe past-time - take up knitting. Especially if 35 knots scares you.

 

If you want a safe past-time - take up knitting. Especially if 35 knots scares you.

Obviously, Mr. Omatako, you've never knitted in F9+ conditions. Freakin' scary. Let me assure you.

 

I think the first dangerous thing people do is have a set schedule. That makes you take risks you wouldn't otherwise take.
People who don't have a set schedule don't mind waiting out a storm or a gale in the safety of a harbor somewhere, or don't rush a repair.

 

I have a nice, plastic bubble I'm willing to sell you. Only one owner, lightly lived in by a nice, little boy.

 

As many have said, there aren't any guarantees. But here is something somebody said to me many years ago, which helped a total newbie:

Storms at sea are scary to consider. But imagine a bottle, with the top firmly on, in a storm. Is it going to sink? Would a bottle be at significant risk of sinking, or would it just get tossed around a bit?

In a bad storm, a well-designed boat all closed up is like that bottle. It is *very* tough to sink (in fact, many sailors simply wait out bad storms below - probably a bit scared and shaken up, but safe and dry). Now she may take a beating she may not come out of it so pretty - but like the bottle, there is no reason why she should sink.

Oh, yeah - and with modern communications and forecasting (assuming you aren't on a schedule) most people avoid storms entirely

Go sail. You'll be risking more on driving to and from the boat.

 

I think a boat that can drain its cockpit well, can close up its companionway and keep from flooding below if said cockpit is pooped, has an emergency rudder, a good storm sail and a solid attachment point for a series drogue, should come as close to guaranteeing your safety as anything you might do on land, including driving your car.

You do have to stay attached to the boat and have the patience to wait it all out, but that's up to you.

 

A ship in the harbor is safe...

If risk is terrifying, if you can't enjoy battle, stick to coastal sailing in mild weather and reading about sailing off-shore. The books are more fun than the reality. Reality, though, brings rewards.

I'm not trying to be cute, but I can't see how the OP is going to enjoy sailing with deep worry. Yes, we all take safety seriously, but if we even ask for garentees, we are better off on the couch. This sounds like a person who is going to want rescue or to just get off when trouble starts. I don't want that person around and I would be angered at having to go get them.

So, the best answer would be to say "nope, no promises, you could die." People do.

 

YouTube - Perfect Storm Rescues: Infant Saved at Sea

Check out above video. Does anyone know why the boat was abandoned? It was only 50 knots and what 20 foot seas. Seems a lot safer on the boat if they can get some sail down. Anyone know what happened to the boat.

In any case, a captain should be able to handle this situation without coast guard.

 

Worsening conditions, in the path of a hurricane, a mother and newborn, and a 13 year old maybe.

 

Maybe, but listen to the audio from Coast Guard, even they were not sure if the baby would live through the rescue. For the mother to jump into the ocean (off a floating boat no less) with a baby in here arms- I cannot imagine. Just holding the baby while in the water under those sea state conditions could drown the baby, or hypothermia (especially on a baby with a small mass and large surface area) could kill it. Maybe the sail was jammed and could not be lowered or removed. I would think a boat this size could deal with a hurricane (close up, get below, hold on, and run under bare poles). I would love to know more of the story, I tried to find more on the internet but no luck.

 

If you are going to close up and wait it out below, bare poles is not necessarily going to guarantee your safety. You want either a series drogue or a sea anchor to hold you perpendicular to the waves.

 

I have heard some sailors (Jon Sanders for example in a double non-stop circumnavigation) used bare poles with no sea anchor or drogue and did what is called "lay a hull" when the seas hit you beam on. Apparently the boat rides very well unless hit by a breaking wave where you might get rolled- but you will come up, which did happen to Jon Sanders. I spoke to a past owner of my current boat. The owner told me he was sailing in 80 knot winds with 60 foot seas and used bare poles with a wind vane to steer (this was in the Tasman Sea). I am not sure if a drogue was used, he did not mention it. My boat currently has a parachute anchor and a drogue. I do not think I would ever use a parachute anchor in high seas as from what I have read, It could cause the bow to submarine into a large wave or breaking wave. Maybe if I were getting blown into land it could be useful to slow progress until I fixed problem or got help. A drouge would be useful (Jon Sanders dragged warps for this) and could be used while sailing or running bare poles.

 

The only perfectly safe sailing is via a computer game. On the other hand, while someone dying in a sailing accident is rare enough that it's likely to make the evening news, people are killed every day on the freeway with hardly a mention.

 

Here in Hawaii, there are probably 3 people killed every year in offshore (not near shore boating accidents). Most actually receive less press than car accidents that probably kill about 30 per year.

 

Casey,

I don't disagree with your point about having an appropriate rig. However, more than one ocean ready boat has been dismasted.

Given the choice between running bare poles and having decent odds of rolling and dragging a drogue and not likely rolling, I don't get why one would choose to lay ahull.

 

Casey,

I don't disagree with your point about having an appropriate rig. However, more than one ocean ready boat has been dismasted.

Agree, so one needs to be prepared to cut it away because a demasting can occur in all conditions- carring sail, no sail, drogue, parachute anchor, motoring.

I think if I were on the "Sea Flower Two" I would have taken my chances on the boat. Maybe there was somthing else going on that made the boat unseaworthy and required rescue- I tried to find more information but unable. I would not be surprised if the boat was found floating several days later in good condition (although leaving the sail up could have caused it to sink, especially if the main hatch was not secured when abandoned). I think the Coast Guard rescue of the baby had about a 20% chance of success. They did an amazing rescue and they should be congradulated- especially that rescue swimmer.